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硅料、硅片降本趋势一致 低电价区域产能成长60%

受到531光伏新政的影响,自政策发布以来,全供应链价格急遽下滑。国内市场部分,单晶用致密料与多晶用菜花料均有30%以上的跌幅,单晶与多晶硅片则分别有27.4%及24.1%的跌幅。硅片端由于金刚线技术转换而增加的切片产能,使其成为全供应链中产能最为过剩的环节,价格依旧持续下滑。

Price Decline of Polysilicon and Wafers from May to September

硅料企业西行 提高单晶用料比例

市况严苛,促使企业必须持续往降本方向发展。许多硅料企业已向新疆、内蒙、四川等低电价地区转移或是扩产,降低电价成本。2019年在新疆、内蒙、四川等地将会新增60%左右的硅料产能,从2018年年产18.2万吨提升至29.6万吨,而这几个主要地区也将占国内整体约70%的硅料产能。

2019 Polysilicon Capacity Forecast in Regions with Low Electricity Cost

2019 Polysilicon Capacity Forecast in Regions with Low Electricity Cost

由于硅片环节逐渐由多晶转向单晶,今年年底整体单晶市场份额将提升至47%,且新投产硅料的单晶用料比例也基本能提高至70%,随着新产能陆续开出,同时硅料一线厂商亦与单晶硅片大厂签署共同布局,如中环与协鑫硅业、隆基与永祥的长期战略合作,在多晶需求持续低迷的情况下,预估2019年单晶占比将达到57%。

旧产能搬移长晶设备 新产能转产单晶

今年初仍有降价空间的单晶硅片,为占取多晶硅片市场份额,在年初就已经开始策略性的进行价格下调,这已对多晶硅片造成巨大压力,加之531新政所带来的全面性影响,随着多晶硅片价格持续下修,在7月之前便已跌落各厂的现金成本之下。但由于多晶硅片价格的下降空间近期已接近底部,大幅下降的可能性不高,铸碇方面应是维持在每季下降一元人民币左右的水平。如果铸碇成本还想要下降,则只能依靠将设备移至电价较低的地区,包含内蒙、新疆、云南等。

硅片制造不仅随着硅料往电价较低的地区移动,与此同时企业选择的做法为直接转产单晶硅片项目。像是阿特斯除了将1GW多晶铸锭车间搬至内蒙包头,也有2GW单晶拉棒的产能;环太亦规划在内蒙包头兴建单晶厂,初期规划为1.5GW,二期再增加1.5GW,后续才搬迁目前在扬中的多晶产能;而天合所规划建设6.5GW中则包含3GW单晶拉棒项目,而多晶部分预估会搬迁目前既有的多晶硅片产能。

2019 Wafer Capacity Forecast in Regions with Low Electricity Cost

*上图仅标示出低电价地区之企业产能,不包含该企业其他地区之产能。

专机切片代工 分化长晶与切片

目前,企业将长晶设备移往电价相对低的地区,切片部分则仍会留在江浙一带。市场上也有部分专门从事切片的企业出现,将带头将切片成本下调。依照目前江苏协通切片代工报价,多晶切片最低每片人民币0.395,单晶切片则可做到每片人民币0.34。由于过去一年多晶主要还是采用改造机来做金刚线切片,预估2018年底后为了成本下降,将大幅度调整采用专机切割。将切片委外代工,分化长晶与切片业务,从而在切片层面进行降本动作,专机的代工价格,也将让尚存的改造机逐渐退出市场。

再者,预估金刚线切割仍有再细化使用线径的空间,虽然目前线径低于65µm时多晶切片已有明显阻碍、断线率增加,但根据梅耶博格近日所提出的切割技术创新机台,将可用线径缩小至50µm,未来甚至能再下调至40µm,以此增加出片数。如相关的技术与金钢线质量也成熟,将更进一步降低每一片硅片的切片费用,因此硅片在切片部分仍有空间下降成本。

随着硅料新增产能逐月爬坡、供给陆续释放,硅片价格依旧持续下修,移动至低电价地区为硅料与硅片环节降低成本之途径,受制于资金无法移动设备仍位在高电价地区的硅片企业及许多旧产能的硅片厂都将退出。而单晶与多晶的战争,从硅料单晶用料比例提高与硅片新建计划来看,企业更着重于建设单晶产能,多晶部分碍于需求不振扩张有限,因此2019年单晶硅片产出将超过多晶硅片。

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