现货价格

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一月需求稳定 后续价格将持续持稳至农历年假

硅料价格

本周国内硅料价格略微下滑,致密料以及菜花料都有每公斤2元人民币左右的跌幅。虽然需求与12月相比基本维持,但由于供给量略增,因此整体价格稍微下滑。

一月下半旬由于还有备货需求,因此预估一月除菜花料还有1元人民币左右的跌幅外,致密料价格基本持稳,而此价格可能也会一路延续到农历年后。海外交易目前买卖双方仍有差异,但交易量略见起色,价格基本也维持在前期水平。

硅片价格

本周国内硅片价格基本稳定,但海外部分由于受到国内订单排挤,目前供货略为紧张,加上汇率影响,目前已经出现涨价态势,虽然价格仍在每片0.265-0.27元美金之间,但部分成交价已经略为拉升。

目前海外多晶硅片的供货基本都是由国内大厂出货,在国内大厂一月订单都全满的情况下,拥有较强的价格主导权。国内价格则因为多数订单在月初就已签订,因此虽然部分厂商已有往上报价的想法,但实际要全面性涨价的可能性较低。单晶硅片基本上供需平衡,目前在价格上没有变化。

电池片价格

因为农历年前的备货潮,不仅单晶PERC电池片在一月供应仍然紧张,多晶电池片由于整体开工率低于单晶,目前也呈现供需平衡的情况。预期电池片价格直至农历年都不会有所变动,维稳在转换效率21.5%及以上的单面电池片每瓦1.28-1.31元人民币、海外0.162-0.165元美金;多晶电池片每瓦0.86-0.9元人民币、0.109-0.115元美金。

然而农历年后,市场需求在没有备货潮的影响下,国内需求结束而使整体需求转弱的情况将开始明显显现,加上单晶PERC新产能进一步提升,预期届时单晶PERC与多晶电池片价格皆会有所下降。

组件价格

一季度单晶PERC组件订单能见度佳,尤其一线垂直整合大厂单晶PERC组件近乎满单,国内、海外皆有订单出现小幅涨价情形,但整体而言,310W PERC组件价格持续稳定在每瓦2.2-2.3元人民币、0.28-0.30元美金的价格区间。

多晶组件方面,垂直整合大厂因海外布局佳、多晶订单在一季度能见度仍不错,故大多仍维持在较高的报价水平,但二线组件厂的多晶组件订单能见度不若一线大厂,本周市场上仍陆续传出更低的报价。

光伏玻璃价格

农历年后整体光伏市场需求可能开始转弱,加上国内后续需求走势未明,市场对于年后情况仍弥漫观望氛围,玻璃价格可能已达高点,年前预期也将持稳在每平方米23-24元人民币。

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