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单晶硅片价格微幅上涨

下周适逢农历年假,PV InfoLink停止报价一周。

硅料价格

本周国内硅料价格出现反弹,单多晶硅料涨幅都在每公斤1-2块人民币左右,单晶主流价格在每公斤80元人民币,多晶用菜花料每公斤约74元人民币。由于多数大厂的订单执行已经都在年后,甚至二月底,因此预估年后单晶用硅料价格,不会像原先预估发生较大的下滑态势。另一方面,目前部分二线硅料企业有库存在手,处于惜售与资金压力的交战,因此年后预估多晶用硅料价格,仍有可能随着库存压力出清而有所下降。

目前了解多晶硅片厂在春节期间还是会降低开工率,而单晶及垂直一体厂产出则基本影响不大,因此多晶用硅料的需求还是较弱。海外硅料价格本周维持,但年后需求看多,预计成交量跟价格都有机会上扬。

硅片价格

本周硅片价格有持续提升的态势,多晶硅片的部分虽然因为接近月底,均价的变动不大,但是低价持续垫高,年后市场如能维持不错的需求,预计不论一二线多晶硅片企业的价格涨幅会更为明显。单晶方面,受到中环提高报价的影响,连同协鑫、高佳等都拉高了成交单价。本周成交价格区间放大,主要的新签订单价格已经提高到每片3.15-3.2元人民币。目前观察年后的需求稳定,整体市场的需求优于预期,因此硅片端在年后还有续涨的打算。

电池片价格

由于单晶PERC电池片过去三个月间涨幅已高,本周单晶PERC电池片并未受到硅片涨价的风波影响,仍将价格持稳在先前21.5%每瓦1.29-1.3元人民币,海外价格整体而言也没有太大改动,但海外市场价差较大,目前台湾市场高档持稳在每瓦0.175元美金。

另外,由于一季度适逢印度、日本旺季,多晶电池片截至目前也尚未出现需求转弱的迹象,二月价格小幅反应先前多晶硅片的涨价,18.7%常规多晶电池片价格来到每瓦0.9元人民币、0.115元美金。

从目前市场氛围看来,单晶PERC订单能见度高,热度有望延续,预期农历年后短期内价格不会出现明显波动;多晶电池片则可能在印度拉货力道减弱后出现转折,故目前厂家仍在观望二月底洽谈三月报价时的市场状况。

组件价格

组件方面,目前看来一季度海外订单优于预期,尤其海外整体的单晶比重比起去年有明显提升,单晶PERC组件订单能见度佳,一、二线组件厂的单晶PERC产品在一季度都近乎满单。且由上周至本周汇率再度出现明显波动,目前美金兑人民币已来到6.73元,故PERC组件换算海外价格仍有小幅拉升。

多晶组件方面,垂直整合大厂因海外布局佳、多晶订单在一季度能见度仍不错,大多仍维持在较高的报价水平,但二线组件厂的多晶订单能见度不若一线大厂,价格较低,使得目前多晶组件价差大,市场上常规多晶275W价格从1.75-1.85都能听见。然而,由于预期多晶组件在一季度印度传统旺季结束之后热度会明显转弱,故预期三月至二季度多晶组件价格将缓步走跌。

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