现货价格

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硅片价格有望于本周明朗 牵动供应链价格后续走向

硅料价格

本周硅料价格基本上保持稳定。虽然单晶用硅料三月签单部分有所小涨,但大部分还是在目前每公斤80-82元的价格区间之内。三月需求目前看来稳定,但供给量会因为新产能或部分硅料厂检修完毕而增加,因此三月的价格大多还在买卖双方拉锯中,大概率可能会落在目前价格区间的上限。多晶用菜花料需求则没有明显增加,因此整体议价还需要较多时间,市场的成交积极度较低。

海外单晶用料有些微的高价成交,整体价格有上涨趋势,但目前变动幅度不大,续涨空间可能有限。

硅片价格

本周硅片价格持平,虽然多晶硅片企业有想涨价的态势,但仍会受到单晶硅片是否续涨影响。而下周即将进入三月份,虽三月初多晶电池片的需求仍有支撑,但海内外的硅片供需在二月减少产出的情况下仍保持平衡,因此整体看来,多晶硅片需求在三月应维持平盘。多晶硅片的价格后续可能报高,但是否能被电池片厂接受还需观察。

单晶方面,本周可望看到中环、隆基的新一轮报价,由于单晶需求的市场反馈较为正面,且观察供需状况,单晶硅片需求仍强劲,因此预期月底还有一轮调涨,但随着单晶PERC电池片的价格可能下滑,硅片的价格支撑力道预估也会受到影响。

电池片价格

多晶电池片在二月产出减少后,供应仍处于较为紧张的情形,厂商近期报价暂时维持在每瓦0.88-0.9元人民币、0.115元美金上下平盘开出。

单晶PERC电池片方面,虽需求依然旺盛、电池厂报价平盘开出,但由于通威的PERC新产能持续释放,单晶PERC电池片供应紧张的情况目前看来有逐渐缓解的趋势,组件厂也开始对电池厂施加压力。然而,目前硅片仍希望调涨价格,使得单晶PERC电池片卡在硅片价格可能上升、组件厂持续压价之间,后续价格走向仍在拉锯。

组件价格

组件方面,虽然PERC组件价格仍有部分零星上涨,但先前涨幅已高,整体单晶PERC组件价格已较为平稳。美国市场方面,由于201税率于二月调降、加上当地组件新产能逐渐开始爬坡,近期价格有开始缓跌的趋势。

多晶组件方面,需求可能在一季度印度传统旺季结束之后开始转弱,故预期三月至二季度多晶组件价格将缓步走跌。

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