现货价格

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单晶PERC电池片价格开始转弱

硅料价格

本周国内硅料的需求还算稳定,但各家的价格略有分歧。虽然在高价部分有所增加,但主流成交价大多还是维持在上周的区间。目前看来单晶用硅料需求仍较清楚,多晶部分则因为供给的增加而有所压抑,尽管因为成本关系,部分企业想将低价往上拉抬,但实际成交仍有限。

目前下游市场对于三月上旬的市况还算平稳,但下旬的情况相对不清楚,因此买方也较为保守,预估三月的硅料价格可能在下旬还有变化的空间,但价格的跌幅有限。海外的部分,硅料成交的活络程度有所降低,价格继续追高的动能停滞,本周海外价格整体来看基本维持。

硅片价格

本周不论单、多晶硅片的价格都保持不变,虽然隆基在上周五上调了价格,但涨幅低于预期,主要成交价格落在目前市场均价每片3.15元人民币左右,对于市场的影响只在低价部分上抬,但高价与均价基本维持。

多晶硅片虽有部分需求,但三月下旬市况不明朗,加上三月的产出较二月明显增加,因此涨价的态势已经停止,价格主要就在每片2.1-2.15元人民币之间。海外的情况也与国内接近,硅片的价格目前持平。预期三月中下旬后,受到下游需求以及电池片的调价影响,硅片价格会有较明显的变化。

电池片价格

近期,终端市场需求已较为平缓,组件厂对PERC电池片的采买已不若前面几个月急迫,开始大力对价格施压,使得单晶PERC电池片终止自十月开始连连上涨的态势,且立即转为跌价。转换效率21.5%及以上的PERC电池片价格从先前每瓦1.29-1.32元人民币跌至本周每瓦1.25-1.28元人民币。

然而组件厂三月的采买目标价仍低于本周现货价格,再加上单晶PERC电池片的产能仍在逐步增加,故预期下周单晶PERC电池片价格仍可能微幅向下。

多晶电池片部分,由于近期有印度一季度的抢装需求支撑,使得目前多晶电池片的供需仍较为平衡,多晶电池片价格短期内应能保持平稳。但预期在三月下旬印度抢装潮逐渐结束之后,多晶电池片价格仍将出现跌落。

组件价格

组件方面,从近期陆续传出的中国光伏政策消息、以及正式政策短期内仍难以下发看来,今年上半中国内需将非常冷清,需求明显集中在下半年,因此市场即将迎来今年度较淡的季度。预期待三月底印度及日本的传统旺季结束后,组件需求将有较明显的转弱,届时单、多晶组件的价格也会开始缓跌。

但由于今年淡季较短,市场需求可能在五月触底之后,六月又逐步回温,因此今年整体组件价格跌幅有限。甚至年底有可能因为需求火热、中上游涨势明显,让组件价格在下半年出现小幅回涨情形。

光伏玻璃价格

不同于背板、EVA近期价格已较为平稳,本周光伏玻璃厂家仍在酝酿新一波涨势,本周买卖双方僵持,价格尚未出现变动,但预期短期内光伏玻璃价格可能略有上涨。

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