现货价格

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短期市场后势看弱 上游供应链价格下滑

硅料价格

本周硅料价格出现明显下降,国内多晶用硅料的价格下滑到每公斤65元人民币左右,二线报价更走低,尽管部分可以作用单晶用的菜花料价格还高,但整体降价的趋势明显。另一方面,因为四月单晶料的合约还没大量签订,因此价格基本保持在上周水平,但本周过后应该有较具体的共识出现,分析四月价格仍有向下空间,后续也大概会呈现缓跌的态势。海外部份,随着海外多晶硅片产能越来越少,多晶用料的需求与价格同步往下走。单晶虽然价格持稳变动不大,但由于后势看弱,因此整体的成交也略微减少。综观四、五月市场可能更弱,硅料的价格也暂时没有落底。

硅片价格

本周多晶硅片的部分,不论海内外价格都有所下滑,国内主流成交价格已经在每片2.06元人民币,并且由目前市况判断,后续谈单都将以每片2.05元人民币为基准来谈。海外则是微幅价降到每片0.278美元,后续签单则可能以每片0.275美元为大宗。由于整体需求持续弱势,预估下周多晶硅片价格还会下跌。本周单晶部分则是海内外都保持不变,中环、隆基下周预计公布四月的价格,由目前市况来看,不涨不跌的可能性较高。短期来看,四、五月单、多晶硅片的价格在硅料的跌价带动下,可能价格都会往下。

电池片价格

本周即将开始洽谈下月订单,由于目前尚未有明显新成交订单,本周价格暂时持平。然而由于印度的需求开始放缓,多晶订单首当其冲,价格下调已是势在必行,但多晶电池片利润早已相当有限,后续的降幅只能视硅片而定。

单晶PERC电池片的订单能见度仍优于多晶,但市场需求总量也已出现放缓,目前一、二线电池厂的状况较为分化,现货市场的价格范围预计会持续拉大。

本周价格与上周相同,21.5%及以上的PERC电池片市场价格维稳在每瓦1.22-1.26元人民币、海外价格大多落在每瓦0.16-0.165元美金。由于目前一线电池厂的PERC电池片部分尚未出现库存压力,预期下周价格在买卖双方拉锯下并不会有大幅跌落的情形。

组件价格

组件方面,虽然今年需求较淡的时间点即将来临,但目前看来一线大厂在二季度PERC订单依旧满载,因此一线组件厂单晶PERC的海外价格高档持稳在每瓦0.27元美金以上。而二线厂订单能见度不如一线厂家强劲,使得市场低价稍微下探,整体而言二线厂价格略低于一线组件厂家,落在0.26-0.27元美金的区间。

目前看来,近期中国内需持续冷清,组件主要还是依靠海外订单。而今年海外订单对于常规多晶的询问度明显较过去冷清,即使是一线大厂也未必都是多晶订单满载的情形。也使国内、海外市场的多晶组件价格依旧稍有走弱。

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