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税改加上市场淡季来临 中上游供应链价格全面下滑

*由于常规单晶市场总量相比去年已明显减少,本周起PV InfoLink现货价格删去常规单晶电池片、组件项目。

硅料价格

本周硅料价格再度下滑,主要原因在于供给持续增加,但需求却无法支撑。目前多晶硅片的需求持续减少,因此多晶用硅料的供过于求态势无解,价格一路走低。但尽管市场上多传言各类”低价”,其实多数是贸易商抛货或混合料的价格,市场上的数量也不多。因此本周实际多数原厂价格仍维持在每公斤60元人民币以上,由于下游也还在观望是否会见到更低的价格,因此目前四月的订单少量成交。

单晶部分更是还在博弈,部分成交反映税改的价格,但多数的硅料大厂以及单晶硅片企业的四月订单都尚未确定,应该在本周末前才有定论。目前预估在多数的订单成交后,下周还是会看到国内的硅料价格走跌,幅度约在每公斤一到两块人民币。海外部份,单晶料的价格变动不大,但不论单、多晶海外的成交数量都不多。

硅片价格

本周多晶硅片受到硅料跌价以及需求不振影响,国内价格已经来到每片2元人民币,甚至不少成交都在2元以下。未来随着硅料价格下修,多晶硅片的价格还会继续往下,因此也预期部分多晶硅片厂的四月产出会有所减少。海外目前价格则是停在每片0.275美元左右,尽管价格换算后略优于国内,但由于海外的多晶硅片需求也在逐渐减少,后续仍有可能贴近国内跌价后的价格。

海外单晶硅片部份,随着隆基的上调,整体价格区间缩小,实际成交多在每片0.423-0.43美元之间。另一方面,由于本周国内单晶硅片的需求还是相当稳定,因此报价主要是受到税改的影响,目前隆基选择保持税前价格,而中环价格尚未公布。由于四月并无新增的单晶硅片产能,在需求稳定向上的情况下,后续中环四月价格是否跟随税改调降也不一定是必然结果。

电池片价格

由于增值税的调降、加上市场已出现整体需求减弱氛围,本周电池片价格出现了下调。单晶PERC电池片部分,虽近期订单能见度仍高、但市场需求总量出现放缓,价格下跌至每瓦1.2-1.22元人民币。而随着硅片价格尚未完全谈定,目前市场仍有不少电池片订单仍在买卖双方僵持的局面,预期后续仍会出现微幅下跌。海外价格则因为国内增值税的调降,跌幅较不明显,成交价大多落在每瓦0.16元美金上下。

多晶电池片近期价格来到每瓦0.87元人民币,且由于市场多晶需求较弱,预期后续多晶电池片仍会随着硅片呈现向下缓跌的走势。

组件价格

组件方面,多晶市场转弱的氛围日益明显,即使是一线大厂也未必能够维持订单满载的情况,使得多晶组件的价格走势偏弱,整体开工率也稍有转弱。而单晶PERC组件虽然有海外订单支撑,但整体而言二线厂商订单并不如一线组件厂充足,加上单晶PERC与多晶组件价差大,也让市场价格出现略为偏弱的氛围。

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主要取市场上最常成交的众数数据作为均价(并非加权平均值)、
但每周根据市场分为略有微调,且加上PV InfoLink专业分析群的市场预测。
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