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供应链跌深止稳 但五月多晶需求仍偏弱看待

硅料价格

本周海内外硅料价格基本维持,除了海外多晶用硅料因海外库存增加、价格小幅下滑外,国内由于多个企业正在进行检修或规划检修,让市场价格暂时打底。

而永祥硅料厂发生意外需时间复工,加上五月中能预计检修,都大幅减少了硅料的供应量,对市场的供应约莫造成10-15%的影响。然而,由于目前的需求较弱,加上前期库存累积,因此尽管硅料的报价有所提升,但并无明显的涨价成交,多数买方不急于现在采购,整体价格仍维持在上周水平,唯大厂目前对于多晶用硅料的成交价格目标锁定在每公斤60元人民币以上。单晶用硅料部分也保持稳定,多数交易仍在每公斤74元人民币左右。四、五月目前了解产出减少的包含康博、永祥、中能、东立等。

硅片价格

本周硅片价格的变化只发生在海外多晶硅片,价格小幅滑落约1.2%至每片0.26美元。由于硅料的价格渐稳,预期后续多晶硅片的价格会保持在目前的水平,继续探底的空间减少,国内多晶硅片主流价格也维稳在1.85-1.93元人民币之间。目前硅片价格主要还是受需求影响,预计四月下旬国内政策公布后还需时间发酵,因此五月的需求仍是看淡,价格预估持平或小幅下修反映供需关系。单晶价格部份,国内与海外价格都与上周相同,预计下周过后两大厂会再公布五月价格。

电池片价格

从上周政府新发布的政策消息来看,国内本土需求莫约在七月能开始出现回温,五月及六月则按照原先预期,将会是今年里较为清冷的时刻。

目前看来,虽然五月需求相较四月进一步衰退,但衰退的部分较偏向于多晶产品方面,单晶PERC订单量受惠于海外单晶需求续热,预期五月供需状况依然能够维持产销平衡。海外价格方面,居高不下的台湾PERC电池片由于台湾需求在四月步入淡季,整体价格出现跌落,近期价格来到每瓦0.175元美金。

下周即将步入新一轮的价格商谈,预期单晶PERC电池片在订单能见度仍佳的情况下,不少电池厂会先持平开出,也让今年PERC电池片的价格低点有望优于预期。常规多晶电池片部分,由于需求还将进一步走弱,价格目前仍偏弱看待。

组件价格

虽然中国内需预期要到七月才开始回温,但是政策进程明确之后仍然给了市场信心,预期市场需求虽然步入了今年的淡季,但组件的价格在七月需求将逐渐转好的心理预期下,并不会出现太明显的变动。

展望后续,电池片、组件厂商会在5-6月淡季之时陆续开始调适产线,以因应下半年的高瓦数竞争、以及逐渐增加的158.75mm(G1)需求,预期三季度会有越来越多厂商将产线转换至G1尺寸,四季度的实际出货将明显拉升。

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