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五月整体光伏供应链价格平稳 静待国内需求回温

硅料价格

本周国内硅料价格触底反弹,虽然从供需面来看,价格的支撑力道不算强烈,但由于多家企业进行检修,加上市场上对于后势的看法较乐观,不仅卖方缓步提价,再加上市场上惜售以及屯货的情况下,铸碇料略为小涨,但成交较多还是在均价与低价之间。致密料的均价与低价部分,也跟随有所上扬。目前硅料价格的涨幅都不大,预期五月的价格也基本持稳,大涨的可能性小。

海外部分,本周没有太多变化,但随着国内价格稳定小幅涨价,海外单晶用料的成交价格也已经从报价的中低价位稍微往上移动到中高价位,市场上大厂的库存控制较好,小厂的部分库存也在之前杀低出货后有所减少。目前硅料价格应该在短期内不会有太大的下行压力。

硅片价格

本周海内外硅片价格全部持平,由于上游硅料价格稳定,下游多晶电池片也稳中看涨,因此硅片的价格区间缩小。除了低价部分略微往上,高价也收在与均价接近。本周海外多晶硅片的价格多在每片0.258-0.26美元之间,国内多晶硅片主流价格也维稳在每片1.9元人民币上下。

五月的多晶需求看来虽不算强,但也不会减弱太多,因此多晶硅片企业的压力将不会太大,但因为同时也有部分库存积压,因此涨价的空间亦小。单晶价格部份,隆基已经公布五月价格不变,本周单晶价格也全面维持。

电池片价格

虽然截至周三最大电池厂通威尚未释出新一波的价格信息,但各厂五月的新电池片订单已陆续开始成交,电池片环节在五月依旧呈现淡季不淡的态势。

单晶PERC方面,如先前预期,受惠于海外单晶需求续热,五月供需状况依然平衡,因此电池片厂商大多持平开出新报价,价格持稳在每瓦1.19-1.21元人民币之间,预期五月国内PERC电池片依旧能维持满产满销的情况。

多晶电池片部分,由于持续有垂直整合厂的自有多晶电池产线改造为单晶,使得多晶电池片从四月到五月都仍有不错的需求,本周多晶电池片虽大多在每瓦0.84-0.86元人民币持平成交,但也有部分订单价格显现微涨,整体呈现稳中有升的情况,预期短期内仍会出现小幅涨价。

组件价格

组件价格在五月并未出现明显波动,目前海外需求仍有强劲支撑,弥补了中国本土内需到七月才能有较明显回温的状况。另外,新兴市场需求持续发酵,也带动部分的多晶组件需求,然而,整体的多晶需求仍不足以支撑多晶组件现在就出现涨价,使得厂商也并未出现明显增加多晶产品产出的意愿。

目前观察,虽然电池片厂商还没有出现太大幅度的改动,但有越来越多的垂直整合组件厂加入单晶产品升级至158.75mm(G1)的行列,预期三季度会有越来越多厂商将产线转换至G1尺寸,四季度的实际出货将明显拉升。

光伏玻璃价格

玻璃价格在历经了年初的持续上涨后,近期供需已较为平稳,也使得价格趋于稳定,五月价格大多持平报出,维持在每平方米26.2-26.5元人民币的水平。

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