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供应链价格维稳 市场静待六月新一轮谈价

硅料价格

本周国内硅料价格基本持平,虽然有企业提升了高价部分,但实际的成交有限,多数硅料与硅片企业的议价仍与上周相同。在硅料没有进一步的供应变化下,基本上都可以满足硅片的需求,但同时目前硅料厂也没有压力需要下修价格。现在距离SNEC前只有两周多的时间。依照过去的经验,在展会前普遍市场仍是偏向观望,SNEC举办期间通常会是一个市场的拐点。因此硅料的价格预期在六月初前应该不会有太大变化。

海外价格部分,本周有明显的下修,主要原因在于汇率的变动。因此尽管国内的硅料价格没有变化,但海外的价格有所下滑,单、多晶用硅料的询问度仍保持一定热度,只是在供需稳定的情况下,价格不会上扬,而汇率的变化让成交价格有所调整。

硅片价格

硅片价格部分,本周全面持平,虽然前一周多晶的企业想要将报价提高,但实际上成交并没有发生,硅片企业对于这个月提价的强度也降低。因此本周一、二线实际成交价仍维持在每片1.9元人民币上下,后续应该也是要等到SNEC才会有比较明确的变化。

尽管汇率有较大的变化,但由于硅片多数在月初已签单,长单客户也不易重议价,因此海外多晶以及单晶价格在本周还是保持不变。

电池片价格

由于先前所有的电池厂几乎都已将五月份订单全数敲定,因此本周价维稳。而下周又到了洽谈下月新价格的时刻,按目前电池片无论单晶PERC、常规单晶、常规多晶询问热度都高的情况下,价格较有支撑。

目前观察,中国内需的回温已开始发酵,部分下游厂商也出现增加备货的情形,加上多晶电池片产能稀少,因此六月价格仍有上涨可能,但从目前多晶硅片产出并未明显大增来看,多晶电池片虽询单火热,但实际供应仅微幅上升。

而海外价格方面,虽然汇率变化大,但由于电池片厂订单火热,目前看来下月的海外价格仍有支撑,预期较难以反映汇率的波动。

组件价格

如先前预期,今年下半年的中国内需大多将以多晶组件来满足,然而从目前终端竞价、或平价项目可接受的价格来看,多晶组件虽然需求提升,但利润相较PERC组件订单还是较差,因此也还未激励实际的产量向上提升。

海外组件需求支撑强劲,PERC组件订单仍然畅旺,尤其高效率PERC组件供应略微紧张,而由于先前订单大多谈定,价格也未受到汇率波动的影响。

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