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展会后价格平稳 静待月底新一轮谈价

硅料价格

本周硅料市场主要仍是在酝酿气氛,虽然硅料价格基本上没有变化,但是单晶用硅料涨价、多晶用硅料降价的氛围仍在,但由于目前正在月中,硅料没有太多新的成交,因此预计各企业都要等到月底才会对价格表态。

根据开工率的预估,六月硅料的供应较五月增加7%左右,其中单晶的用料减少较多,然由于检修的硅料企业目前都还有库存可供,因此暂时看不到对于供需太大的影响。但七月开始库存减少,对于单晶用料的供需就会有较明显改变,因此这也是目前单晶用料看涨的原因。另一方面,多晶用硅料则是随着六、七月持续增加产出,价格持平或往下,看来也会是大概率的方向。

硅片价格

硅片部分,多晶硅片价格还是保持在此前水平:每片1.9元人民币以及0.255元美金。预计在国内的平价上网项目大量启动前,多晶硅片的价格都不会有太大变化。单晶方面目前也是维持一月一议的价格,但单晶硅片的供应紧张在六月更加明显,因此单晶大厂在六月底调价的可能性看来越趋升高。

由于单晶硅片在下半年可能供不应求,确实有利于铸锭单晶抢市,目前由于只有鑫单晶大批量生产,因此价格基本就是协鑫的价格。目前据了解157的鑫单晶价格在每片2.6-2.7元人民币之间。158.75的价格则在每片2.9元人民币左右。虽然尺寸放大同时价差空间也较大,但据下游了解目前的供应还是以157尺寸为主。海外硅片价格基本持稳,但同时海外的单晶缺口也在放大,下半年对于海外无签订合约或是中小型电池厂的硅片缺货情况将更为严峻。

电池片价格

单晶PERC电池片价格维稳在每瓦1.18-1.21元人民币、台湾PERC电池片价格也维持在每瓦0.175元美金左右,显示在单晶PERC的“高价”。

三季度PERC产能将进一步增加,组件厂也持续对电池片价格施加压力,然而目前PERC电池片需求仍然坚挺,因此预期七月价格走势买卖双方持续僵持,具体得视六月底再次谈价时对七月整体需求的预判。
常规多晶维稳在每瓦0.89-0.9元人民币,静待月底新一轮谈价。东南亚常规多晶则慢慢向0.128元美金甚至更高价格靠拢。

组件价格

展会期间组件价格基本处于平稳态势,但组件辅材成本近期仍持续微幅上升,加上玻璃之后可能再出现新一波涨价,因此下半年需求转好后预期组件会从利润空间较薄的常规多晶产品先开始反应涨价,目前只能等待中国内需何时开始大幅拉货。而三季度单晶组件订单量仍然向好,即使目前单晶PERC产能仍在爬坡,但三季度单晶组件价格目前看来仍维持较稳定的走势。

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