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四季度市场不如预期 海外组件价格持续下跌

硅料价格

本周硅料价格开始有些微浮动,国内单晶用料的价格微降到每公斤74元人民币,多晶用料维持在60元人民币的水平,但部分议价有所上抬,成交在60-62元之间。由于整体市场的回温不如预期,因此采购保持观望,近期的采购价还会持续波动。

现在主要关注于月底单、多硅片的价格变化,虽然硅料的库存较为健康,但如果下游持续降价,则势必影响硅料的价格。目前仍认为11月硅料的供应较之前多,因此单多晶用料的价格还是有机会下修,本周已看到单晶些微修正,多晶用硅料则需视多晶硅片的开工率,决定是否下调硅料价格。

此前硅片价格对应的硅料价格较低,因此目前多晶硅片企业的压力确实较大,但随着多晶在近期的需求偏弱,整体态势不利于整体多晶产品的价格。海外市场多晶部分交易依然热烈,尤其是小料部分,加上考虑汇率变化,高价部分有所上升。

硅片价格

本周多晶电池片价格持续下跌,连带也让多晶硅片价格持续往下,本周价格多在每片1.82-1.86元人民币之间。多晶电池片的库存问题,让多晶硅片面较大压力,后续可能还有往下的压力。目前一线大厂主流价格多在1.84-1.86元之间。由于单多晶产品呈现钟摆效应,近期对于多晶产品的价格压力可能还要持续一阵子。

单晶方面,本周中环、隆基可能会公布下月的牌价,对于市场的影响将会更为明显,目前仍预判存在降价的可能,对于硅料、硅片市场都有关键性决定。本周单晶的低价有所下调,铸锭单晶价格也有所下滑,其他部分则维持上周价格。

电池片价格

9-10月来单晶组件的快速下跌对终端市场创造较高的吸引力,让近期至明年组件端的多晶订单进一步转少,再加上中国内需有一大部分将递延至明年,使得多晶电池片需求相当冷清,价格跌至每瓦0.75-0.78元人民币、海外价格也低于每瓦0.1元美金。在硅片价格还未明显跟跌的情况下,目前价格水平已低于多数厂家的现金成本水位,厂商纷纷开始将产线转回单晶、甚至有厂商准备开始关停部分多晶电池片产线。

单晶PERC电池片部分,预计在硅片价格明确后将进入新一轮的价格洽谈期,因此本周价格并未出现波动,维稳在每瓦0.91-0.95元人民币、0.12-0.122元美金之间。然而由多晶转回单晶的产线将垫高市场的供应量,且下个月预期也有新扩产产能将释放到市场上,使得十一月单晶PERC电池片若要涨价可能会面临较大的压力。

组件价格

目前国内竞价项目的动工仍较预期缓慢,市场普遍认为将有更大比重的竞价项目将递延到明年上半年,让产业的情绪更趋悲观。单晶PERC组件近2-3个月来在国内快速跌价,每瓦1.75-1.85元人民币的低价也慢慢传导至海外市场,使得海外市场单晶PERC组件从先前的每瓦0.25-0.26元美金上下,到近期海外组件对明年的主流报价来到0.23-0.245元美金。且由于四季度市场可能持续不如预期,预期明年上半年海外市场的报价还将持续走跌。

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