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多晶需求不振 多晶电池片、组件持续跌价

硅料价格

本周多晶用料的价格开始略显松动,主要来自于多晶硅料比例偏高的硅料厂。一线厂报价虽然维持每公斤60元人民币,但呈现有价无市的情况。目前硅料厂多晶用料库存并未大幅提升,即使受到铸锭企业下调开工率甚至关停的情势反逼,本周价格仍然没有大幅下调。在产铸锭企业与硅料厂现正处于博弈阶段,买卖双方在价格部分呈现拉锯,即便有成交也是少量,大多的铸锭企业观望情绪居多。

铸锭企业开工率持续下修,面对多晶后市需求低迷,多晶用料成交价恐难守住每公斤60元人民币。硅料厂持续增加单晶用料产出,而下游需求也相对稳定,单晶用料价格持稳,每公斤为74元人民币左右。值得注意的是面对接下来多晶用料价格下滑,单晶企业是否要求硅料厂维持一定的价差,将是关注的重点。海外单多晶用料部分,本周汇率变化不大价格持稳。

硅片价格

本周国内多晶硅片延续上周市场需求低迷的氛围持续降价,价格落在每片1.75-1.8元人民币,均价部分小幅滑落。铸锭企业面对上下游双面压力,二三线厂仍有抛货恐慌情绪存在,市场上价格较为混乱。大部份铸锭企业减少约三成至四成开工率,经测算本月多晶硅片数量较10月约减少1亿片左右,电池厂拉货力道也不强。

然而,整体看来降价的幅度逐渐缩小,多晶硅片价格将有机会逐渐回稳。近期国内158.75mm方单晶硅片(G1)拉货力度略有增温,供应略显紧张,每片价格在3.28-3.33人民币区间。海外单晶硅片价格无太大变化,每片为0.388-0.397元美金。铸锭单晶价格与上周价格持平,每片2.65-2.7元人民币。

电池片价格

多晶电池片的库存压力尚未解决,因此市场上的抛售仍在持续,本周主流价格来到每片3.05-3.1元人民币,换算每瓦价格已来到0.674元人民币上下,在目前需求难以回温的氛围下,多晶电池片的价格仍在微幅下探。而目前的价格水平已低于多数厂商的现金成本水位,因此预期12月会有更多产能转回单晶、或是减产因应。

海外价格部分,印度仍是目前最大的多晶需求支撑,近期价格也快速反应,跌至每瓦0.085-0.089元美金。

单晶PERC电池片整体行情则较为平稳,传统M2尺寸的价格持稳在每瓦0.94-0.95元人民币上下。158.75mm方单晶片(G1)主流价格则落在每瓦0.95-0.97元人民币。

组件价格

本周有大型组件集采开标,从目前价格来看,多晶组件的降价已经开始加速,主流价格来到每瓦1.58 -1.69元人民币,且价格还在持续往下。国内的降价也同时传导至海外,美金价格也呈现缓跌态势。

单晶PERC组件部分,近期国内价格已较为平缓,而海外的价格受到今年四季度旺季不旺的悲观氛围影响,组件厂对明年上半年订单的报价较为积极。

 
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