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多晶电池片、组件库存难消化 价格跌势未停歇

硅料价格

本周多晶用料价格持续走弱,市场上成交价格低于每公斤60元人民币以下,但成交量偏少,主要仍是执行前期订单或调整订单价格持续执行。下周双方陆续商议12月硅料订单,价格讨论力道会更加热络。
受铸锭厂家下调开工率及关停影响,硅料厂开始有库存出现,加上前期检修的硅料企业陆续恢复生产,整体产出相较10月略为增加,但目前库存仍在接受范围内,因此价格调整幅度有限,大多数的采购观望情绪依然浓厚,预期接下来几周的时间中,多晶用料价格仍存在跌价可能性。

单晶用料部分,在硅料厂持续增加单晶用料比例及下游需求稳定因素下,价格仍在每公斤74块人民币,但部分厂家单晶用料价格开始略有松动,主要是由于近期多晶用料价格下滑,直接影响到单多晶硅料的价差。海外硅料虽受国内价格牵动,但在汇率影响之下价格与上周相同。

硅片价格

本周国内多晶硅片延续上周市场需求低迷的氛围持续降价,价格落在每片1.75-1.8元人民币,均价部分小幅滑落。铸锭企业面对上下游双面压力,二三线厂仍有抛货恐慌情绪存在,市场上价格较为混乱。大部份铸锭企业减少约三成至四成开工率,经测算本月多晶硅片数量较10月约减少1亿片左右,电池厂拉货力道也不强。

然而,整体看来降价的幅度逐渐缩小,多晶硅片价格将有机会逐渐回稳。近期国内158.75mm方单晶硅片(G1)拉货力度略有增温,供应略显紧张,每片价格在3.28-3.33人民币区间。海外单晶硅片价格无太大变化,每片为0.388-0.397元美金。铸锭单晶价格与上周价格持平,每片2.65-2.7元人民币。

电池片价格

多晶电池片的抛售仍在持续,本周主流价格来到每片3.0-3.05元人民币,换算每瓦价格已来到0.65元人民币上下,目前的价格水平已低于多数厂商的现金成本水位,因此预期12月会有更多产能转回单晶、或是减产因应。

而低迷的价格持续影响海外美金价格,尤其印度组件厂的目标采购价仍在下探,本周成交价跌至每瓦0.08-0.086元美金。受到国内电池跌价的影响,第三地产能价格也快速反应,东南亚多晶电池片来到每瓦0.1元美金上下。

单晶PERC电池片则会在下周陆续开使洽谈12月价格,从目前单晶PERC需求仍然较稳定的情况来看,预估电池片厂商仍会尝试小幅抬高报价,实际成交则视12月整体组件需求热度而定。

组件价格

从近期开标的项目来看,多晶组件的价格仍在持续下探,主流价格来到每瓦1.58 -1.65元人民币,且价格还在持续往下。国内的降价也同时传导至海外,美金价格也呈现缓跌态势。

单晶PERC组件部分,近期国内价格已较为平缓,而海外的价格受到今年四季度旺季不旺的悲观氛围影响,组件厂对明年上半年订单的报价较为积极。

光伏玻璃

目前光伏玻璃厂家订单能见度高,且供货稍有紧张、无库存压力,加上部分区域天然气价格小幅上涨,综合各项因素,厂家再度酝酿下月的涨势。然而,目前组件价格面临很大的下行压力,且明年一季度的需求状况不容乐观,预期下周玻璃价格将呈现买卖双方拉锯的情形。

 
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