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多晶产品需求低迷 供应链价格持续下探

硅料价格

在多晶终端需求持续低迷的影响下,本周多晶用料价格均滑落1元人民币。部分铸锭企业为保留手上现金,不断下调开工率甚至关停,让原本库存不高的硅料厂逐渐备感压力,因此12月初在下游企业反逼硅料情势底下,多晶用料价格下滑至每公斤58元人民币,部份二线厂报价甚至更低,但即使现况降价刺激需求对于拉抬效果仍然有所限制。在产铸锭企业对于硅料观望态度成分居多,形成与上周相同有价无市的情况,预期下周多晶用料仍有每公斤1-2元人民币跌价空间。

单晶用料部分,随着单晶硅片厂公告12月牌价后,单晶用料价格有所支撑,价格落在每公斤73元人民币。不过先前检修硅料厂恢复满载及新产能释放,单晶用料供应略为提升,加之年底前上下游库存控制的考虑,单晶用料也有1-2元人民币跌价可能。海外用料在汇率没有太大变化下,单晶用料开始出现松动,小幅跌价每公斤0.1美金 ; 多晶用料跟随着国内价格连动下行。供应面来看,12月起国内某一硅料厂关停生产,但另一方面大全新产能逐步释放,整体单多晶硅料供应仍算平衡。

硅片价格

本周多晶硅片价格全面下探,每片落在1.65-1.7元人民币之间,实际成交价跌破每片1.7元人民币。前期维持满载运行铸锭企业,日渐剧增明显感受到出货的压力。目前多晶的关键在于需求端偏弱,即便硅片价格调降,反应至电池价格仍是现金成本以下,都是亏现金勉强营运,因此在产企业为维持生产及降本,部分转往中效项目开发。

在现阶段多晶用料跌价同时,预期年底前多晶硅片同样存在跌价的空间。海外多晶硅片同样受国内影响,价格滑落至每片0.219-0.223美金之间。单晶部分价格变化不大,市场成交价在每片2.95-3.06元人民币之间,从供应面来看11月底某大厂切片车间受当地交通建设限电影响,影响12月产量约4,000万片左右,在供应略紧情况下,预期单晶硅片有机会持稳在每片3.06元人民币左右,另外小型的单晶企业甚至可能上调硅片价格。

电池片价格

即使目前的价格低于多数厂商的现金成本水位,多晶电池片的跌价仍未停歇,本周主流价格来到每片2.85-2.9元人民币、更低的价格也略有听闻,换算每瓦价格已来到0.62元人民币上下。常规多晶产线全开的部分一线厂也持续面临库存压力,在多晶需求持续低迷的情况下,库存难以消化、价格尚未见止跌。

低迷的国内多晶电池片价格持续影响海外美金价格,本周成交价约在每瓦0.08元美金或略低于此水平,第三地产能价格也快速反应,东南亚多晶电池片跌破每瓦0.1元美金。

另一方面,单晶产品在年底出现小幅拉货潮,整体需求佳,本周国内单晶PERC电池片维持上周每瓦0.95元人民币,海外价格也持稳在先前水平。

组件价格

从近期开标的项目来看,多晶组件的价格仍在持续下探,主流价格来到每瓦1.58 -1.65元人民币,且价格还在持续往下。国内的降价也同时传导至海外,美金价格也呈现缓跌态势。

单晶PERC组件部分,近期国内价格已较为平缓,而海外的价格受到今年四季度旺季不旺的悲观氛围影响,组件厂对明年上半年订单的报价较为积极。

 
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