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本周价格波动不大 静待月底新一轮谈价

硅料价格

多晶用料经历上周大幅下行后,本周成交价落在每公斤52-56元人民币,高价小幅滑落1元人民币。在产多晶硅片企业开始要求采购订单必须搭配非免洗料源,压低均价落在每公斤45-50元人民币之间甚至更低的价格,进而降低硅料成本,因应多晶硅片低价行情。

目前绝大部分多晶硅片企业产能利用率相当低,拥有多晶硅片产能的一体化大厂也有计划关停生产,未来陆续将退出多晶产品市场,看来也会是成为供需平衡的一项指标。以多晶用料产出为首的二三线硅料厂,按照现况多晶用料价格来看,不排除提前以检修方式下调开工率甚至关停因应,因此预期未来硅料产能将有机会更为集中。

单晶用料部分,由于新扩硅料产能陆续释放,加之硅料厂不断提升单晶用料产出比例,及年底前销售端合理库存考虑,单晶用料供应略微增加,高价部分小幅滑落,价格区间落在每公斤71-74元人民币。海外硅料部分,汇率相较上周变化不大,单多晶用料价格维稳,均价分别为每公斤8.4及 6.7美金。

硅片价格

本周多晶硅片延续上周跌价氛围进一步下行,价格落在每片1.55-1.60元人民币,成交价跌破每片1.6元人民币。虽然近期多晶用料的价格开始反映在多晶硅片环节,但整个多晶供应链仍是亏现金营运。在终端需求持续低迷影响之下,预期春节前多晶硅片仍不见反转的迹象。目前国内对于中效片需求有一定的支撑力度,前期未生产中效片的一线多晶企业,本月开始主动规划少量产出,市场中效片与多晶硅片价差为每片0.2-0.25元人民币左右。

单晶硅片市场相对较为稳定,主要是终端需求有一定支撑力度,本周价格持稳在每片2.95-3.06元人民币之间。近期大尺寸158.75mm(G1)硅片供应紧缺,部分小型企业酝酿涨价氛围浓厚 ; 另一方面企业为配合客户需求逐步提升G1产出,预估明年G1占比有机会达百分之六十以上,本周成交价落在每片3.27-3.35元人民币之间。下周单晶硅片大厂可能公告下个月牌价,目前预判存在持稳的可能。

电池片价格

由于多数厂商会待下周才出现新一轮谈价,因此本周电池片价格并未出现太大变动。需求持续疲软的多晶电池片价格维持在每片2.8-2.85元人民币区间,换算每瓦价格约在0.61元人民币。海外美金价格也成交价也仍落在每瓦0.077-0.079元美金。但由于上游硅料、硅片近期跌价幅度明显,后续新一轮谈价也可能继续反应硅片的跌价。

部分国内项目抢装年底并网、加上欧美等海外市场年底拉货潮,垂直整合厂采买力道强,单晶电池片供货依然紧张,整体需求佳,本周国内单晶PERC电池片维持在每瓦0.95元人民币、G1尺寸主流价格则大多落在每瓦0.98元人民币。海外价格也持稳在先前水平。

然而十二月中下旬后欧美需求可能暂时转弱,单晶电池片需求热度能否延续,则要视有多大体量的中国内需项目递延至明年一月继续安装而定,整体情况预计下周能较为明朗。

组件价格

随着多晶产品的需求低迷、及中上游的跌价,近期多晶组件对于明年的报价持续降低。若是明年上半年供货的多晶组件价格,已快速降至每瓦1.5元人民币上下。

展望明年,400W的高效组件成为市场最主流的报价瓦数对组件厂带来很大压力,为了达到市场的需求瓦数,必须以158.75mm方单晶、搭配半片、多主栅及提效辅材,因此预期半片搭配多主栅的组件实际出货量在明年将逐季攀升。

 
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