海关出口分析

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【出口分析】下半年组件出口逐月增 高效电池片出口排名洗牌

组件出口自七月以后逐月成长

据PVInfoLink 最新的海关出口报告显示,十月中国组件及电池片的出口量分别为2,776MW及349MW,较九月有11%及9.5%的增加。

在组件部分,下半年受到“201条款”效应影响,来自美国的组件需求十分强劲,出口美国总量已连续四个月呈正成长,至十二月底之前,仍有部分厂商持续往美国出货,以赶在明年一月“201”正式判决出炉前到港,然出口量应会随着最终宣判日的接近,逐渐减少。

十月份欧洲地区的出口量也有显著的增加,出口占比由九月的4%增加至十月8%,出口量的增加部分来自于二、三季时受中、美需求排挤,递延出货的订单,然而欧美地区圣诞、新年假期即将开始,加以第四季市场缺乏强有力政策支持,整体需求自十一月底起已明显转弱,海外市场出口量的下跌是可预期的,而明年一季度除印度、日本因财年关系稍有支撑外,其余市场亦无强劲需求,须待二季度中才会开始有所回升。

高效电池片出口排名洗牌

中国每月电池片出口量持续稳定的增加,截至十月由中国出口之电池片总量已接近2.7GW,以印度、韩国及巴西为主要出口目的国,其中出口至印度的电池片累计总量已达974MW,预期十一月即可突破1GW的累计出口量,而韩国也已突破500MW的出口量,巴西则达480MW。

不仅整体出口增加,高效电池片的出口也由三季度每月约15-25MW的出口量,成长至32.3MW。目前高效电池片仍以单晶PERC为最主要出口产品,PERC电池片的出口增加,不仅是因中国国内对高效产品的需求已随今年领跑者项目的结束而减弱,主要原因还是更多的厂商加入高效电池片的战局。

观察全年PERC电池片的出口,在上半年顺风与东方环晟的出口量互有千秋,但在今年年中开始,爱旭加入战局,每个月的PERC电池出口持续攀升,并在今年九月、十月,都位居中国PERC电池片第一的宝座。预期待十一月数据出炉,爱旭今年累积PERC电池片出口量将超过顺风,正式坐上出口PERC电池片的龙头宝座。另外,横店东磁的高效电池片出口量在十月也有显著成长。

再分市场来看,韩国及日本为高效电池片出口的兵家必争之地,共占整体高效电池片出口量的63.1%,韩国的高效电池片供应原以东方环晟为主、日本则是爱旭为主要供应商,但观察十月海关分析数据,爱旭已在韩国、日本此二市场都成为主要高效电池片供货厂商,高效电池片后续的海外市场竞争值得继续关注。

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