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单晶硅片调降、单多晶电池片同价 备战淡季

随着韩国硅料双反重审传闻将以对产业影响不大的税率落幕、美国201造成的冲击也在昨日稍有眉目,近期各项市场的不确定因素逐渐尘埃落定,接下来对市场影响较大的只有印度贸易战、明年中国内需市场抢装潮的波动、以及长期供不应求的硅料何时供应能够缓解。再加上上周隆基领头大幅调降单晶硅片价格,大陆电池厂家也直接报出单晶与多晶电池片同价,使得单多晶之争再度浮上台面,为明年一季度即将到来的淡季做准备。

PV InfoLink认为,虽然美国201条款从10/31公布的“补救措施”看来,明年美国市场全年安装相比2017年将不致于下降太多,然而美国明年一季度的需求都已在今年Q3 - Q4备齐,2018Q1美国需求恐相当冷清。而中国内需市场在历经了Q2 - Q4的一路火热之后,明年一季度看似没有项目需要抢装的时间点,第一季度需求也不旺盛。新兴市场的旺季大多也较为集中在下半年,使得2018Q1仅有印度及日本支撑,恐成为2018年最淡的季度,供过于求而造成价格快速下滑的情况已可预见。

硅料

韩硅料双反重审预期将会在近期内公布判决,若上涨后的税率仍维持在10%以内,硅料市场长期悬而未决的危机就能算是在不太影响单、多晶硅片未来价格走势的情况下落幕。

随着硅片价格已开启下跌走势,预期硅料后续已无上涨空间。目前国内硅料高档持稳在每公斤149-154元人民币,海外硅料则于每公斤14-14.3元美金封顶。

预期十二月价格将随开始转弱的需求走跌,然而仍可能因为检修后的厂商硅料产出还在爬坡阶段,走势仅出现缓跌,须待明年一季度才能有较为明显的降幅。

硅片

国内多晶硅片价格持稳在金刚线多晶硅片每片4.75元人民币、海外每片0.645-0.65元美金左右。砂浆硅片价格本周也持稳在每片5.05元人民币、海外每片0.685元美金。

单晶硅片龙头厂上周大举调降价格,带动整体市场价格来到180µm每片5.6-5.7元人民币、海外每片0.75-0.76元美金,与190µm厚度大约维持每片0.15元人民币、0.02元美金的价差。

根据PV InfoLink资料库统计,隆基与中环的产能至年底加总已到27.5GW,比起保利协鑫产能高出4-5GW,在单晶硅片产能明年仍将持续扩充的情况下,明年单多晶硅片的价格战争将影响产品的风向。

电池片

不少大陆电池片厂家也发出震撼的消息,单晶与多晶统一报价在每瓦1.75元人民币,此举刺激了先前较为低迷的单晶买气。而台湾电池片价格则与上周没有太大差异,多晶电池片微幅下降至每瓦0.222-0.225元美金,PERC电池片则下滑至每瓦0.28-0.285元美金。

组件

随硅片、电池片的跌价,本周各区域组件持续缓跌。目前看来十一月需求尚可,但对于十二月下旬的需求已逐渐出现疑虑。且由于国内分布式的抢装潮并未出现,十二月需求的转弱已是在所难免,预期接近年底之时,整体供应链都将再出现一波跌价。

随着韩国硅料双反重审传闻将以对产业影响不大的税率落幕、美国201造成的冲击也在昨日稍有眉目,近期各项市场的不确定因素逐渐尘埃落定,接下来对市场影响较大的只有印度贸易战、明年中国内需市场抢装潮的波动、以及长期供不应求的硅料何时供应能够缓解。再加上上周隆基领头大幅调降单晶硅片价格,大陆电池厂家也直接报出单晶与多晶电池片同价,使得单多晶之争再度浮上台面,为明年一季度即将到来的淡季做准备。

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