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美国201带动海外供应链续涨 国内外价格开始分歧

在SolarWorld EU声请破产之后,美、欧洲市场存在着高效组件的空缺。五月起,非中国的高效组件询单已经明显升温,而后受到201的影响,美国市场需求转趋旺盛,组件价格开始上涨。

如此火热的氛围除了让海外产能无须担忧三季度订单以外,也带动国内以及台湾的买气在630过后有望续航。三季度市场将分为三大主轴:

(1) 美国市场 - 因“201条款”可能在年底执行MIP而使Q3热度大增

Q3以后各地组件欲销往美国除了原先在美国市场耕耘已久的美、欧、韩厂商以外,东南亚企业也倾尽全力生产组件销往美国市场,同时间美国组件价格也水涨船高。另外,2014双反税率即将于八月底调降的台湾企业也可能在接下来加入战局。

(2) 欧洲市场 - 进入年度旺季

SolarWorld EU倒下后,当地厂商产能已首先受惠,然欧洲本来就属全球市场中价格较高的区域,虽产能紧张、但目前现货价格未有明显波动。

(3) 其他市场 - 新兴市场的挹注

三季度国内需求虽仍有领跑者及分布式项目支撑,然大型地面电站的需求七月起将陆续结束,使得内需在三季度将有明显滑落。所幸中东、南美等新兴市场今年蓬勃发展,有新兴市场的挹注,预计一线厂商本土产能开工率应不致太差。

综上所述,”201条款“掀起与去年截然不同的局面,对海外产能来说,原先预期今年最淡的Q3反成最旺的季度,国内与海外的价格也开始出现分歧:

硅料

国内硅料成交价本周维持,一线厂在每公斤120-122人民币上下,小厂价格维稳在每公斤118-119人民币,但现货价格开始有松动的迹象。海外硅料则随海外硅片价格略有上涨。

硅片

六月中单晶硅片龙头厂的让价已见分晓,在180um单晶硅片下调0.2元至每片5.85人民币,190um单晶硅片下调0.15元至每片6元人民币的“有感降幅”下,价格尚持稳的单晶电池片将更有利润空间。(目前市场还是以190um为大宗,换算180um约下调0.026美金至每片0.76美金、190um约下调0.02美金至每片0.78美金)

180um较大的降幅也显示了单晶硅片厂继续推广薄化硅片的决心。

电池片

受到部分电站递延至七月的效应,国内多晶电池片暂无需跌价,六月下旬维稳在每瓦1.8人民币上下。台湾则出现与国内截然不同的情况,受到201的影响,海外的零税率产能都集中进攻美国市场,而欧洲市场需求的空缺就由台湾厂商递补上,使得台湾电池价格增长至每瓦0.23美金,且后续涨势仍可期待。

组件

国内组件厂产能持续为630赶工,价格落在多晶每瓦2.9-3.1人民币、单晶每瓦3.2人民币以上。变化最大的非美国市场莫属,为了避免后续”201条款“所带来的风险,美国项目开始提前购买组件动工,使得海外组件厂三季度供不应求、订单满载。除了先前超跌的美国市场常规组件从原先每瓦0.34-0.35美金逐渐往每瓦0.37-0.38美金靠拢之外,单晶PERC组件也出现一片难求的盛况。

总之,不论最后201条款将如何尘埃落定,如今可以预见的是,Q3供应链价格将优于各界先前预期,美国市场面对可供应的组件短缺的情况下,短期内涨价将续航。

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